Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
